Xi Jinping reinforces the authority of the Party in Chinese affairs

I wrote in a previous post about China's chance of becoming more democratic - this now seems to be an even more remote possibility following Mr Xi's articulation of the paramount role of the Party in in Chinese affairs. In his recent Road to Rejuvenation speech in Beijing, Mr Xi signaled the road ahead. He relegated Mr Deng's views in 1980 about the need to separate the roles of the 'Party' and the 'Government' to the annals of history. Any thoughts about a Singapore-style of government for China went out the window.

Recent articles on China in the October 14 edition of The Economist are well worth the read in this context. Mr Xi has apparently made it clear that the Party is the paramount source for framing political, economic and social debates, setting various agendas and finding solutions to problems in the coming period. I particularly liked the description of the Party in The Economist (pp.16-17). Before Mr Xi's rise to power, the Party was like a company whose workers did not show up for work. In addition, it seems the days of Party members failing to pay their membership dues are also over.

While China is accustomed to a succession of 'Emperors' where the concentration of power in a few people is the "normal" state-of-affairs, exactly how Mr Xi's new grip on power will play out in China in the coming months is concern for not only China but also the global community.  The Economist of 14 October (p. 9) points out that the currently dueling global heavyweights - China and the US - seem to be adopting different tactics. Whereas Mr Xi is asserting his power internally and gaining influence globally through many cross-border initiatives, under President Trump, the US appears to be "pulling back" from similar cross border initiatives. In addition, Mr Trump's hold on power may be precarious given the current state of internal politics of the US. We could be all in for a rough ride in these circumstances!

Will China become a democracy?

Will China become a democracy? According to Singapore's elder statesman Lee Kwan Yew, the short answer is "No", and "if it did it would collapse". Lee's assessment about this aspect of China's development can be read in an informative article in Time (4 Feb 2013). Mr Lee's insights about China are indispensable for anyone considering doing business in China. He also discusses China's cultural roadblocks affecting business development, including the view that China's creativity is stifled compared to the process in the US - this is because the culture "does not permit a free exchange and contest of ideas". To understand China is to know what China will do in the future and how it may react to various events. Mr Lee suggests that China's "reawakened sense of density is an overpowering force" in contemporary China. China estimates in needs 30 to 40 years to bride the econ mic gap and avoid the mistakes of the Japanese economy. To compete head on with the US now is unwise given the current gap. However, 20 years down the track, we will be in a different setting. For sure, the Chinese leadership will take the long view and we need to consider this when trying to determine what China will do today. No doubt, China require peace in its region in the catch-up phase. This augurs well for the recent crisis in the Korean peninsula, where China can play a leading role in encourgaing North Korea to rejoin the modern world.

Knowledge about China can also be gained from watching modern Chinese films and television shows. Two in particular reveal the subtle sides of Chinese culture. Chongqing Blues and The Biggest Chinese Restaurant in the World are both worth watching. Be an anthropolgist and treat the screen as a text. Observe the surroundings and the people, listen closely to the dialog (especially the language and action that indicates cultural peresispositions). Just observing the surroundings and how people interact also tells you alot about modern China.

The Corpse Walker: Real Life Stories: China from the Bottom Up

I have just finished reading The Corpse Walker by Liao Yiwu. While I have read some of the stories in other publications, this is the first time I have read all the stories in a single volume. The Corpse Walker consists of 27 oral histories told by ordinary people in China. The author, a Chinese activist, is also one of the most censored writers in China today. Through the stories, Liao reveals the real China of a previous era and vividly brings to life the ways in which the Cultural Revolution, the Great Leap Forward and the Anti-Rightist Movement affected people in China, "from the bottom up". The resilient nature of the Chinese also emerges in these oral histories - the reader also senses that many subjects have adjusted to the lot dealt to them by the New China. However, in several stories, Deng Xiaoping's role as a positive change agent in (communist) China is held in very high regard.

Liao compiles his stories from notes and his memory to bring history alive - history of this type cannot be revealed in orthodox textbooks. The stories subtly reveal the essence of the Chinese cultural, political and social architecture in the everyday lived experience of a wide range of ordinary (and in many ways quite remarkable) people - from the corpse walker, a mourner and a Abbot to a petty official, a Red Guard and a thief. An array of others, including a  Falun Gong member, a mortician, a street musician, a feng shui master and a prisoner also tell their own stories.

I have friends who are the children of people labeled by the Red Guards as "intellectuals", "bourgeois" and "counter-revolutionaries" during the Cultural Revolution and therefore, suffered significantly and were denied an appropriate education. However, many children of the same Red Guards have tried to make amends over the years by providing opportunities and resources to the children whose parents suffered so much under Mao's revolution. A similar story emerges in one of Liao's stories.

Despite the problems and poverty endured by many of Liao's subjects, both their humanity and Chinese cultural character emerge in their stories. While Liao lets his subjects tell their own stories, he also challenges them on occasions, seeking clarification or presenting an alternative view on the issue at hand. The Corpse Walker is a powerful text and a great read for anyone wanting to understand the deep nature of Chinese society.

Is the Chinese Economy a Black Swan?

Following the ideas of Nicholas Taleb, Vitaliy Katsenelson asks whether China is the mother of all Black Swans. Katsenelson's commentary about the Chinese ecnonomy highlights its "tremendous overcapacity" in many areas including real estate and certain industrial sectors. The Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (2010) also acknowledges the highly complex and intricate nature of the Chinese economy while simultaneously describing China's development as "open", "long-term", "comprehensive" and "mutually beneficial" for foreign investors. Good news perhaps but divergent views about China are aptly captured in Wolf, Bikson, Law, Mitchell and Galama's (2003) earlier assessment of the "challenges, fault lines and potential adversities" facing China. The potential for cracks to appear in the economy, society and the polity are highlighted when the wake of rare and potentially tumultuous events are factored in. For example, harsh economic conditions following a massive and sustained increases in the price of oil, the impact of a significant and prolonged decline in foreign-direct investment (FDI) and/or the internal and external effects of a large-scale war are considered as "black swans" in China's future. However, extreme conditions permeate forecasting about China's future - for example, the impending implosion of the system (Chang, 2002) stands side-by-side with China ruling the world (Jacques, 2009). Other predictions, which don't comtemplate the collaspe of the policical system, highlight adaptation as the key to China's political and economic future.