Following the ideas of Nicholas Taleb, Vitaliy Katsenelson asks whether China is the mother of all Black Swans. Katsenelson's commentary about the Chinese ecnonomy highlights its "tremendous overcapacity" in many areas including real estate and certain industrial sectors. The Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (2010) also acknowledges the highly complex and intricate nature of the Chinese economy while simultaneously describing China's development as "open", "long-term", "comprehensive" and "mutually beneficial" for foreign investors. Good news perhaps but divergent views about China are aptly captured in Wolf, Bikson, Law, Mitchell and Galama's (2003) earlier assessment of the "challenges, fault lines and potential adversities" facing China. The potential for cracks to appear in the economy, society and the polity are highlighted when the wake of rare and potentially tumultuous events are factored in. For example, harsh economic conditions following a massive and sustained increases in the price of oil, the impact of a significant and prolonged decline in foreign-direct investment (FDI) and/or the internal and external effects of a large-scale war are considered as "black swans" in China's future. However, extreme conditions permeate forecasting about China's future - for example, the impending implosion of the system (Chang, 2002) stands side-by-side with China ruling the world (Jacques, 2009). Other predictions, which don't comtemplate the collaspe of the policical system, highlight adaptation as the key to China's political and economic future.
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